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HP: Street Skeptical On Whitman; Maybe They Shoulda Tried Capellas

By Tiernan RayShares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) are down 32 cents this morning as the Street digests the news that the board appointed eBay’s (EBAY) former CEO, Meg Whitman, its new chief, and that chairman Ray Lane has expanded his responsibilities. During a conference call to discuss the change, management indicated that it’s less confident about revenue this quarter, projecting $32.1 billion to $32.5 billion in revenue, and EPS in a range of $1.12 $1.16.That is roughly in line with the Street consensus of $32.2 billion and $.13 per share.As reported this morning by Bloomberg’s Aaron Ricadela, Whitman says that she’ll “stand by” the strategy as laid out by outgoing CEO Leo Apotheker. That will certainly not be great news to some investors, especially the part about possibly selling the PC unit, and the $11.7 billion proposed acquisition of British software firm Autonomy PLC.The attitude this morning is skeptical, if hopeful. As one investor I spoke with expressed it, Whitman doesn’t have the requisite Big Company experience, having come to eBay when it was a much smaller company and leaving as it became a very big company. “I think they should have chosen [former Compaq CEO] Michael Capellas,” says Dan Niles, chief investment officer for AlphaOne Capital Partners, and a Street analys for years before that. Niles thinks Capellas has both the “vision thing,” and also a deep knowledge of how to run a big company.Still, Niles just got Alpha into HP shares for the first time on Wednesday, and he is holding onto the stock. At a forward P/E of five and change, there is no reason not to own what is still fundamentally a sound company, he thinks. Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee this morning offers a succinct version of the Street’s concerns:While we believe Meg has proven to be a very capable manager leading eBay from a start-up into a household name and one of the largest internet companies, there will be plenty of scrutiny given her lack of experience in the enterprise business. Her 30-year career has been in the consumer space including at eBay, Disney, Proctor & Gamble, Hasbro, Stride Rite, and FTD. Frankly, it is too early to predict whether she will be a success or not as time will tell. Nonetheless, we believe Meg faces a learning curve in picking up the enterprise business and supply chain management including component suppliers, contract manufacturers, and distributors.Wu maintains a Neutral rating on HP shares.

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