House Democratic Leader John Rusche is euphoric about what he sees as a rare chance: his party winning seats in the Legislature with an incumbent Democratic president atop the ticket.Rusche concedes President Barack Obama’s unpopularity in Idaho but says the GOP’s effort to mandate ultrasounds before an abortion might be trump.“They played special-interest social politics and forgot the people care about their personal freedom,” Rusche said. “The response in the House wasn’t anything but a response to the massive outpouring from basically women and Republican women.”Fearing a rout at the polls, House Republicans revolted last month after the Senate passed Senate Bill 1387, denying the bill a hearing. Sponsors, however, say they’ll be back in 2013, keeping the issue alive for the November election.GOP Gov. Butch Otter’s tone at last week’s post-session news conference suggests that he sees the peril. The first question was whether Otter would have signed SB 1387, to which he offered a terse “no comment.”Would he work with sponsors to write a bill he could sign? A second hard-bitten reply: “I’ll cross that bridge when I get to it.”Rusche, a retired physician from Lewiston, said Democrats are working on a constitutional amendment to shore up patient rights. “It had never occurred to me that someone would not be able to say, ‘No, you cannot do a procedure on my body,’ ” he said.David Adler, a presidential scholar at the University of Idaho, said Obama’s unpopularity springs from expansionist aims. “People see him as responsible for an ever larger and more sprawling federal intrusion into Idaho,” he said.Republicans in the Legislature advocated their own version of government intrusion with the ultrasound proposal. “Democrats have been handed a bountiful basket of attractive issues,” Adler said. “The question is whether they can capitalize.” Other promising issues include legislative ethics and the referendums to overturn state school Superintendent Tom Luna’s 2011 education laws. GOP lawmakers already sounded a less-noted retreat last month, dismantling Luna’s provision that cut teacher pay to buy kids laptops.Still, Rusche is reluctant to predict Democratic gains. “If we pick up seats in a presidential year, it’ll be a good deal.”Otter also dropped the crystal ball. “My prediction is I’m going to go out and work very, very hard for every Republican candidate.” He then jabbed Rusche, a spectator at Otter’s news conference. “Have you got somebody running against you yet?”“Of course,” replied Rusche, apparently forgetting he was unopposed the past three elections.“I guess that’s where I’ll start,” cracked Otter.Republicans filed candidates for all but one legislative race; Democrats conceded 26 of 105 seats.Jonathan Parker, executive director of the Idaho Republican Party, isn’t shy about the party’s advantage with Obama as an icon of evil. “We’re not just playing to maintain our majorities. Our campaign plan anticipates picking up seats.”In my view, there are eight key races in play, six defended by Republicans, two by Democrats.I’ve always said Idaho Democrats get whacked when they hold the White House. A colleague asked me the other day why. I had two words: Bill Clinton. With the GOP assailing his “War on the West,” Democrats dropped five seats in 1996, falling to a paltry 16. (They now have 20.)It turns out history isn’t so clear. In the 10 elections since statehood with an incumbent Democratic president or vice president on the ballot, Idaho Democrats have picked up legislative seats five times: 1916, ’40, ’44, ’48 and ’68. They lost seats in ’36, ’64, ’80, ’96 and 2000.Adler said the finding surprised him. “It seems counterintuitive, but it may be the case that the top of the ticket may not matter that much in state races.”Of course, every campaign is different.In four of the five elections where Democrats made gains, the U.S. was either at war or approaching it. At peace in 1948, Harry Truman was a Cecil Andrus Democrat before Andrus was invented. Whatever history hints, it’s hard to imagine Obama not being a drag in Idaho.The puzzle of 2012 is whether Democrats can counter by running against a GOP “War on Women,” a phrase Rusche has smartly adopted.Dan Popkey: 377-6438